Moat Market Intel: Alternatives to, Small-Cap Revival, Lower Long-Term 60/40 Portfolio Returns, and Twilio ($ TWLO) Delve deeper into Q2 results

I think some readers might hear the news of tighter restrictions on the use of as a platform for Singaporeans yesterday.

The Singaporeans had a month to withdraw their fiat assets and redeem their tokens. Previously, stopped trading pairs and payment options in Singapore dollars.

Stopping spot trading is more drastic.

In any case, you have alternatives in:

  1. Twins
  2. FTX exchange
  4. Kucoin

Gemini remains a great platform to easily transfer money from your Singapore bank account to the platform and back. The trading cost is reasonable when using ActiveTrader but they say exchanging SGD to ETH and BTC is not good (personally, I can’t feel it).

Most of the trading can take place on the FTX Exchange, which has relatively low trading fees and withdrawal fees (depending on network conditions).

If you move from these centralized exchanges to the decentralized exchanges, you can easily switch to other coins, so that’s not too much of a problem.

Here is this week’s Moat Market Intel.

Rich Kiyosaki, poor readers

Many of us classic cars have been woken up by Rich Dad Poor Dad to take care of our finances.

Well, I’ve read some of his books. After the second book, I notice that the content repeats itself.

Robert Kiyosaki’s tweets are also beginning to repeat themselves.

If you followed the current version of Robert Kiyosaki you would find that he is a doom monger.

If I remember, he made a prediction in the 2000s that the market would crash in 2016. I think the market was fine this year.

Someone created a relationship graph of their tweet and market performance.

I think it’s good to be skeptical. But as Logan (in Moat Market Intel last week) says, we find it hard to believe that these people aren’t net long.

The supply of uranium mines only covers 74% of the world’s nuclear reactor needs

The sources of uranium have changed over the decades. Visual capitalists have a brief description of this.

Given the dynamics of supply and demand, this is optimistic for uranium. Another Fukushima that could fail uranium uptake, and the world government has renewed reservations about the introduction of nuclear weapons.

The creepy relationship between 10-year government bond yields and small-cap-to-Nasdaq price.

Wyckoff Analytics has this great relationship graph:

The graph above shows the Russell 2000 ETF versus the Nasdaq ETF over the past two years. The 10 year government bond yield has been overlaid on this graph.

This surge in yields has led to much of the action we’re seeing on major stock indices this week. In the past 5 days, the Russell 2000 is up 1.73% while the Nasdaq 100 is down 1.71%. As you can see, the $ IWM / $ QQQ is almost in step with the 10 year return.

The makeup of the top stocks on the Nasdaq tends not to do as well when prices are uncertain, but I don’t understand why small caps do well.

However, I struggled to make a graph for longer time comparisons.

Tom Bowley from created a chart over a period of time:

This is not a Russell 2000-Nasdaq relationship, but rather a small-cap ($ SML) versus S&P 500 ($ SPX) relationship. It looks like the pattern isn’t just a two-year phenomenon.

The price drops this year …

Have been small.

Vanguard is forecasting much lower long-term returns for the 60/40 portfolio

To guide investors in making long-term investments, Vanguard must also be able to understand futures market returns.

Their Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) is a model that they have refined over the years.

Based on their model, the future annualized return will be much lower than we expect. This is not limited to the 60% equity portfolio, 40% bond portfolio, but also to the equity portfolio.

One of the main reasons for this is that the price / earnings expansion from a low valuation has been a key component of our great growth over the past decade. That has expanded enough already.

If we complete the price multiple expansion then growth will drive profits in a low growth environment. That’s not going to be good.

The expected return for ex-US stocks is somewhat more optimistic.

Cem Karsan and his latest update on the likelihood of weaknesses

You can check out this tweet. I will not interpret it.

1 / x Unsurprisingly, it was a good time to wrestle. This has turned enough green, we would be forgiven for comparisons with Lou Ferrigno … As discussed last Friday, the decline in the bears ahead of the Fed to 4300-4350 should not be 🙌. Now that we are approaching the 20th day, the final litter is coming.

– Cem Karsan 🥐 (@jam_croissant) September 27, 2021

Reading this previous article might help a little.

Software Stack invests in Twilio’s Q2 results (TWLO)

Software stack investments take time to sift through some of the companies it owns or is interested in.

In last week’s update, he goes into detail on Twilio’s second quarter results, recently added capabilities, and management insights.

It’s always nice to have a chief technology officer explain some of these things to us.

Register with the new SG broker Futu SG. at today before October 2nd and you can get one FREE Apple Stock and 3 months of commission-free trading. All you have to do is open the account and deposit SG $ 2700 into the account and you can get this welcome package which is valued at worth SG $ 205!

Here are the easy steps which enable you to qualify in a short period of time.

Take part Investment Moats Telegram Channel here. I will be sharing the materials, research, investment data, and deals I come across that will enable me to run investment moats.

To do Like me At Facebook. I am sharing some tidbits that are not often featured on the blog post there. You can also subscribe to my content via the email below.

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